All win probability models are wrong — Some are useful – StatsbyLopez

As in the moments following the 2016 US election, win probabilities took center stage in public discourse after New England’s comeback victory in the Super Bowl over Atlanta. Unfortunately, n…

The State of Goalie Pulling in the NHL

All models are wrong. Some are useful.

1. Twenty-five percent of the customers of a grocery store - AP Stats

Probability models example: frozen yogurt (video)

Simple guide for using nflscrapR · GitHub

PDF) What was lost? A causal estimate of fourth down behavior in the National Football League

All Models Are Wrong

Python's «predict_proba» Doesn't Actually Predict Probabilities (and How to Fix It), by Samuele Mazzanti

Thread by @EvolvingWild on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App

Tuning an In-Game Win Probability Model Using xgboost – Staturdays